Expected returns on value, growth, and HML☆
نویسنده
چکیده
Article history: Received 26 September 2009 Received in revised form 22 March 2010 Accepted 6 April 2010 Available online 13 April 2010 In this paper, I analyze the predictability of returns on value and growth portfolios and examine time variation of the expected value premium. As a primary tool, I use the filtering technique, which accounts for time variation in expected cash flows and explicitly exploits the constraints imposed by the present value relation. I demonstrate that returns on value and growth portfolios are predictable, and the predictability is stronger for growth stocks. Applying the filtering technique to the HML portfolio, I build a novel powerful forecaster for the value premium. The new forecaster appears to be only weakly related to business cycle variables. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. JEL code: G12
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